Press Briefing

Situation Briefing Presided Over By President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. on the Effects of Typhoons ‘Pepito’, ‘Ofel’, and ‘Nika’


Event Situation Briefing on the effects of Typhoons Pepito, Ofel, and Nika
Location NDRRMC, Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City

PRESIDENT FERDINAND R. MARCOS JR.: Good afternoon. Good afternoon, everyone. Yes, so – another one that we have to do. This is another NDRRMC meeting in preparation for the – well, first of all, to see the status of what we have been able to do after the passage of Marce, and, of course, now to prepare for Pepito.

So, I think let’s hear first from PAGASA to give us what the situation is concerning the storms. Well, I know that one is going away, but Pepito looks very large and very strong. So, please.

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR NATHANIEL SERVANDO: Good afternoon, Mr. President, and distinguished members of the Cabinet, and of course, our colleagues in the government.

I will present the latest update about Typhoon Pepito. As of 2 p.m. this afternoon, it is located 510 kilometers silangan ng Guiuan, Eastern Samar with wind strength 150 kilometers per hour and gustiness up to 185 kilometers per hour. It is moving westward at 30 kilometers per hour. Medyo may kabilisan siya.

Ito po ang projected track ng Pepito. Ito ay inaasahan na magi-intensify pa habang ito ay papalapit sa ating kalupaan at maaaring aabot ng super typhoon before mag-landfall over Catanduanes bukas ng gabi or Sunday early morning. Ang sentro nito will traverse parts of Bicol Region, Quezon, and Central Luzon. Then, exit the landmass via Pangasinan on Sunday evening. Then, it will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday.

Gusto ko pong emphasize, Mr. President, ang cone of uncertainty again within that area ay maaaring magbago ang track ng bagyo or even landfall location.

Sa ngayon, nakataas na ang storm wind signals sa halos buong Kabikolan maging ang eastern parts of the Visayas, partikular na ang Samar provinces. Ang highest signal ay signal number 2 but, of course, inaasahan natin na ito ay tataas pa habang papalapit ang Bagyong Pepito.

Dahil po papalabas na o papalayo ang Bagyong Ofel, sa ngayon, ang inaasahan nating pag-ulan ay naka-focus na lamang doon sa may Babuyan – ah Batanes Group of Islands. Subalit tomorrow, simula tanghali hanggang Sunday ng tanghali inaasahan natin ang walang humpay na pagbuhos ng ulan, intense to torrential rain, na aabot ng mahigit 200 millimeters of rain. Ito po ‘yung mga areas na nakapula.

Of course, kasama diyan ang Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, at Northern Samar. Malakas hanggang napakalakas na buhos ng ulan ito po naman ang areas na naka-orange. Inaasahan po natin ang ulan aabot ng 100 to 200 millimeters per hour ito po sa may Eastern Samar, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte. At katamtaman hanggang malakas na mga pag-ulan ito naman ‘yung naka-dilaw. Ito po simula bukas.

Now on Sunday ng tanghali hanggang Monday, ito naman po ang expected rainfall scenario. Ang naka-red, of course, na-mention ko ito pong makaranas ng mga matinding pagbuhos ng ulan, walang humpay na pagbuhos ng ulan: of course, ang Kabikolan, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, maging ang Quezon, at Aurora. Samantala ang naka-orange, ito po ‘yung mga lugar na makakaranas ng malakas hanggang sa napakalakas na mga pag-ulan 100 to 200 millimeters of rain.

Kung hindi magbago po ang track, worst-case scenario Metro Manila po kasama po dito. And, of course, ang naka-dilaw ito po ang makakaranas ng mga bahagya or katamtaman na mga pag-ulan hanggang sa malakas na mga pag-ulan.

Dahil po mabilis ang pagkilos ng Bagyong Pepito at may kalakasan ang kanyang intensity, ito rin po ang ating babantayan ang storm surge na maaaring umabot ng more than three meters. Ito po ‘yung mga dalampasigan na naka-highlight in orange particular na doon sa Kabikolan kung saan ay inaasahan na doon direktang tatama ang sentro ng Bagyong Pepito.

Iyon lang po ang maikling report ko about the latest – about Pepito, Mr. President.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Thank you. Well, it’s more or less has been forecast and what we have been seeing sa mga briefing na ginagawa ng PAGASA.

Ito lang – dahil ang track nitong Pepito hindi lang basta tatawid ng Pilipinas, talagang dadaan.

From this track that we are looking at, first, it will go to – the first area it will hit will be Eastern Visayas. And then, all the way up Bicol to Luzon. Kaya mas malaki ang area na tatamaan nito.

And that’s why our preparations have to be done accordingly.

All right. I think we have all seen at least a version of these maps that PAGASA has just gone through with us.

Okay. So, of course, the next thing that we need to do is OCD will give us a run-through of what we  have been able to do thus far to prepare for Pepito.

OCD  DIRECTOR MARIA AGNES PALACIO: Good afternoon, Mr. President, and members of the Cabinet, and colleagues.

So, before I go with the preparations for Pepito, I just wanted everyone to be aware of the effects of Kristine, Leon, Marce, Nika, and Ofel – all of these tropical cyclones affected the country in three weeks or so, and also some have made some preemptive evacuation.

And if you would look at the map on the right side, you would see in terms of the heat map or severity of the situation, northern Luzon has been affected by several typhoons. And the light blue colors are the ones affected by Kristine, Leon, Nika, and Ofel. And the white ones are affected by Kristine and Leon.

Of these four tropical cyclones, it was Kristine that made some kind of casualties, 162 dead. But if you would look at Marce, Nika, and Ofel, equally strong tropical cyclones, we have one casualty for Marce and two missing persons for Nika and Ofel. For Ofel, we haven’t had any casualty yet.

We are expecting for Nika and Ofel for the statistics to still go up because they had been affected from way or the other just one day of calm to be able to do rapid assessments.

And this is also the statistics specifically for Nika and Ofel. This is going to be a running data as of now because most of the local government units haven’t been doing rapid assessments yet because for Ofel and some of the preparations are still being done mainly because they have to consider worst-case scenario as well for Pepito if they will be affected as well.

But looking at it, based on the heat map again, it’s Region II that has been affected specifically Isabela for Nika and followed by Cagayan. Mainly because of the strong winds and the amount of rain that it poured over the region.

So, in terms of preparation, we do pre-disaster risk analysis within the NDRRMC. We know for a fact that risk analysis is very important to understand and to have an awareness of the elements of this, especially people that are going to be along harm’s way and even the services that would be affected in case there would be some kind of a risk.

And in this particular – we rely heavily on the information coming from PAGASA and this how could be translated into warnings and alerts at the local level. And also, for the public to be aware of the hazards to consider in terms of planning, and specifically for preparedness planning.

For us, it’s also very important that since there are consecutive tropical cyclones coming our way, it’s very important to have that window of calm to determine that window of response that we can be able to replenish and at the same time prepositioned assets in between that calm.

And basically it’s very important as well to consider at Manila level, at the national level, the likely scenario, all of these are being translated into worst-case scenario by the agencies or the by the local government units.

Since there is what we call the “window of uncertainty”, we are not sure yet where Pepito would be heading.

So, in terms of planning we have already alerted, with the support of the local government units through the DILG, to alert Regions I, CAR, II, III, NCR, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, V, VI, VII, VIII. For VI and VII, they are also being alerted because of the activity of Kanlaon, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Wait, before – just to be very clear. When you say “we alert them”, what do we do exactly? What does it mean that you alert them?

DIR. PALACIO: Basically, this alert is being translated into [What do you call this one?] warnings. Warnings to the local government units to do preemptive evacuation, inform them of the hazards that are coming their way.

For example…

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Who do you alert? The province?

DIR. PALACIO: The province, the local govern — from the province, municipality, even the barangay levels, sir. Through the support of the local government units and DILG.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Yeah. But OCD sends the warning to the province? I presume.

DIR. PALACIO: Yes, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Okay.

DIR. PALACIO: That’s what we do.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: All right.

DIR. PALACIO: We work hand in hand with the DILG.

So, basically all of these, from PAGASA and from the MGB-Mines and Geoscience Bureau of DENR, we overlay the number of people and the barangays that would be affected. All of these are translated into warnings, alerts, and in the same manner memoranda to the local chief executives.

And this is very important at least for the people to heed the advice from their local chief executives. And at the same time, it is very important for us to understand where would be the elements at risk. So that we can be able to make sure that once the storm passes, we can be able to provide emergency relief assistance for life saving purposes.

And to ensure as well that there would be humanitarian access so that people would have access to essential services.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Wait. Can you explain this map? Because this storm surge is something that we haven’t had to deal with us so far.

So, that is how far the – if the storm surge is at three meters, how far in land? Iyong pula? Is that the indicator?

DIR. PALACIO: It depends on – I think PAGASA and MGB would be able to help me with this. But in term — it depends on the slope and it depends on the topography…

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Yeah, naturally, yes, yes. But – we know the slopes of these areas. So, can you give us some kind of indicator? How far in land, if there is a 3-meter storm surge, how far in land will they reach?

Maybe we can have a shaded map so that we can also warn those LGUs that are within the danger area that there is a possibility of a storm surge.

DIR. PALACIO: Three meters, seven-foot.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Three meters. That’s – malaki ‘yan.

DIR. PALACIO: If I may, sir?

Actually, MGB had also mentioned to us that as much as possible there would be a minimum of five-meter easement from the shore.

But ideally, it should have been 10 meters – 10 meters in easement so that there would be people not on harm’s way for that matter.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Actually, if there’s one thing we learned from Yolanda, it does not matter the distance from the high-water mark. It matters the height above the high-water mark.

You can move 10 meters, 20, 30 meters but if it’s still on the same level, tatamaan pa rin ‘yan.

The key element is that it’s the… That’s why the response in Yolanda was actually mistaken because we moved back from the high-water mark. That’s not the test. The test is the height above the storm surge.

So, if it’s a three meters, we have to look at the topographical map and see where three meters is, above the high-water mark.

Because we have – the communities that are within the storm surge areas have to do other things besides just prepare for strong winds and heavy rain.

Kasi pagpasok, ibang effect niyan. So, people have to reach – we have to get them to the high ground. It’s not enough to move them away from the sea. We have to get them to high ground. That’s the only thing that we can do when there is a storm surge.

All right.

Can we generate that? So that the DILG can also specifically target and say “may risk kayo na tatamaan kayo ng ano,” and we will send them the map and say, “dito sa probinsya ninyo, ganito.”

All right. Okay, so keep going.

DIR. PALACIO: In this particular kind of – the main message that we wanted to convey here is for local government units to take actions.

One is preemptive evacuation.

So, basically, these are the generic and at the same time the preparedness actions or the preparations for Pepito that is being recommended for the local government units to heed.

So, the national and the local governments are advised to take advantage of the window of calm, that’s one day, between Ofel and Pepito to continue with ongoing response for Marce and Nika, and preparation for Pepito for other regions including the conduct of preemptive evacuation or forced evacuation starting 15 November; and information dissemination in the form of alerts and warnings to the public utilizing national and local media platforms, and replenishment and prepositioning of emergency relief supplies for life saving purposes.

The public is also advised/encouraged to refrain from unnecessary travels to keep supply roads open. Because this one – this number two actually was one of the lessons learned we had from Kristine.

If you would remember, there was a long traffic coming from Matnog going to Legazpi, from Sorsogon going to Legazpi because there were so many trucks that has been stranded along the way. And at the same time along Camarines Sur during Kristine as well, there was a long traffic and some trucks that has been stranded. And we have a hard time bringing along fuel to Camarines Sur at that time.

So, from now on, I think this is a very good way to be able to advise the public that supply routes have to be open, supply lines have to be open for emergency purposes.

LGUs, especially those that had been affected by the consecutive tropical cyclones, to identify additional evacuation centers.

As I’ve mentioned for Kristine and Julian and other tropical cyclones, there are protracted IDPs already in the evacuation center, specifically in Mimaropa. Those that has been affected by Kristine  because of the landslide and the floods as well in Bicol region, they are still in the evacuation center, and some of them have lost their houses.

But then at the same time, if Kristine would pass through Region III, those who have already been displaced would still – are advised to continue.

That means they have – for the local chief executives, they are being advised to identify additional evacuation centers that are sturdy enough to be able to house them.

And at the same time, we are calling all local chief executives, especially the governors, mayors, and punong barangays to implement response preparedness measures and activation of relevant national and regional coordination platforms such as the NDRRMC, inter-agency coordination center for ease of coordination and decision-making processes.

Basically, this is also the prepositioned sea, air, and land assets for mobility and – since 4 November 2024, so that we can be able to provide the necessary equipment or search and rescue teams whenever it’s necessary to be deployed elsewhere. And they are here in terms of prepositioning. This is also part of the preparations for Pepito.

As far as the QRF for OCD, we have more than 211 million as of the moment.

And in terms of anticipated humanitarian needs, obviously, and hope that Pepito doesn’t have – doesn’t create some havoc. But in case – if there would be, since we have already protracted stay of people in the evacuation center, there would be a need to support camp coordination or camp management or evacuation center management.

There are already houses that have been destroyed or damaged and they will be needing emergency shelter center assistance, water sanitation, and hygiene in some areas have been an issue in terms of potable water and hygiene kits.

In some other areas, especially the ones in Region II, they have – their power and communication has to be fully restored yet.

I think from the transmission lines, they have already been restored but in the distribution lines, that’s where the issue is.

And then additional food and NFIs to sustain the evacuation centers and even people who have already gone back to their houses, emergency medical services to sustain basic life support, and rehabilitation of school facilities that has been rendered, damaged, or destroyed. And in the long run, rehabilitation of livelihoods.

I think that’s the last slide, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: That’s it. All right. Just another – I noted this map that you have preparations for Pepito where you have the map of the distribution of assets that you have made.

I noticed that first of all, we don’t see there’s – we don’t see Region V and Region VIII. So, we don’t know.

But nonetheless, if you look at this – if you look at that map, it seems most of our resources are still in the north, Northern Luzon.

But that’s not should… Are we able to move some of those away to bring them to – ? Or again, alam natin, Samar na naman ang tatamaan. Region VIII, tatamaan na naman ang Region VIII, Bicol, for sure, and CamSur again.

So, shouldn’t our assets be prepositioned there rather than still up? O ginagamit pa, hindi pa makuha? Hindi pa —

DIR. PALACIO: Sir, ‘yung iba po ginagamit pa.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Ginagamit pa?

DIR. PALACIO: Yes. Every morning at the ICC, we would always have a roll call or some kind of a briefing within the Inter-Agency’s coordination center and all of the regional centers of the Office of the Civil Defense are there.

And basically, it was not just included here. For example, in Region VIII, they have already prepositioned, especially in Eastern Samar and Northern Samar, some flood assets, water search and rescue assets already, even emergency medical teams already been strategically placed. For Region V, they have already been there since Kristine and haven’t been moved.

All of these assets somewhat are ready, prepositioned even before for Marce, and even, even before.

So, some of them are national assets already just strategically placed in those areas, sir. And if ever necessary, if ever necessary, we can also pull out some of the assets in some other regions that are not yet being utilized as of now.

But what is very important is some assets have to be strategically placed in some of the regions so that they have at a minimum some readiness to begin with. Mainly because – although we haven’t seen anything yet  for the tropical cyclones, we just have to make sure that there is at a minimum assets for such as these that are prepositioned in any part of the regions.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: So, in your judgment, the — our — all of these assets that we’re talking about mobility assets, heavy equipment, ambulance, firetruck, water truck vessels, rescue boats, water assets, helicopters, they are distributed as best as they can be to anticipate the coming of Pepito?

DND SECREATRY GILBERTO TEODORO JR.: Yes sir. We asked —

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Wala kasi sa mapa ‘yung Region V at saka Region VIII eh.

SEC. TEODORO: Yes, sir. We showed you before, sir, in the initial packages before…

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Oh, the one you sent me?

SEC. TEODORO: Yeah, the more granular distributions.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Yes, yes, yes.

SEC. TEODORO: That’s replicated throughout the region.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Throughout the regions.

SEC. TEODORO: Yes, sir. Just for brevity sake, we did not show it.

DOST SECRETARY RENATO SOLIDUM JR. Mr. President, Region V is… The list is on the…

PRESIDENT MARCOS:  Yes, I see that pero the location is not shown. And again, Region VIII because palapit na eh. Malapit na ‘yan as… Clearly it will be there first. The rain will be felt first in Region VIII, and then V, and then, depending on the track, tatawid na ng Luzon and will go through Central Luzon.

SEC. TEODORO: The only change sir, here, will be the air assets. We’ll have to secure them in secure hangers. We cannot pre-deploy them in areas because of the lack of hardened hangarage facilities.

PRESIDENT MARCOS:  Well, we – the military is the one who is fairly – who trained for this to preposition assets in the sense – in a way that we are keeping them safe from damage and destruction from the storm. And the – that’s what we have – that’s what the kinds of guidance – that’s the kind of guidance that we have to follow.

All right. Okay. So, the next briefing will be given by DSWD.

DSWD SECRETARY REX GATCHALIAN:  Thank you, Mr. President. Mr. President, I only have three slides. If  we can pull up the three slides.

Mr. President, just like what the OCD people did, we contextualize it in the point of view of starting with Kristine. Just for everybody’s information, Mr. President, October 19, our national stockpile of  family food packs stood at two – close to 2.1 million.

Now, right after Kristine and Leon, that number dropped to 1.3 million nationwide. Now, these numbers, Mr. President, are not static ha? Because while we do preposition, we also produce in our warehouse simultaneous.

So, for the total five storms, Kristine, Leon, Marce, Nika, Ofel, we released a total of 1.6 million. So, theoretically, if the number was static, ang matitira na lang sa atin 2 million less 1.6, dapat nasa 400 na lang. But it doesn’t work that way because every day, we produce from out of our repacking center in Pasay, then we opened another center in Central Luzon, and then one in Visayas is running that supplied Bicol actually.

Mr. President, again, we are now in the stage where we preposition, we produce, we dispatch, all at the same time. We produce and respond at the same time, in short.

Now, Mr. President, we tried to ascertain saan dadaan si Pepito, and these are the areas where we reinforced the prepositioning.

So, for Region I, we’re back to its original strength of 91,000 prepositioned family food packs. Region II is only at 18,000 because nagre-release pa rin sila up to now. That whole operation will end for Ofel by Sunday pa, Mr. President.

Because as we speak right now, we’re still getting a lot of requests for augmentation from local government units. So, what’s happening is we send, they release. We send, release.

By Sunday, bookend na ho kami for Ofel sa Region — for the storm Ofel.

Region III is at 56, this used to be at 300,000 because as I mentioned, we’re repacking there and deploying to the regions.

Now, CAR is close to its maximum capacity at 52,000.

Calabarzon, Mr. President, we focused on Quezon at 30,000. This one were not worried, Mr. President, because mayroon pa  siyang ibang peripheral warehouses outside that Quezon area.

And then Region V, we brought it back to 98,000. Ideally, it would have — it should have been at a 150. But Mr. President, mayroon pa rin kaming sinasagot na early recovery for Kristine that hasn’t stopped yet.

Now, Region VIII is close to its original at 83,000, Mr. President. So, this should sustain us — I mean, ideally, would have — should have been bigger but this should sustain us for the first impact and then we’ll keep on augmenting as we go along.

Ang nangyayari kasi, Mr. President, as I mentioned, we are still releasing for the previous storms while stockpiling and doing everything at the same time.

Now, the third slide, Mr. President, are the major takeaways. We maintain a 1.3 stockpile nationwide, especially in VizMin, we’re not dropping that.

Then, we’re now utilizing two supply lines. Simultaneously, we’re producing from Central Luzon, Pasay, and Cebu. But we are already getting our suppliers delivered to us pre-packed. So, dalawa na, while we’re producing, we’re also receiving pre-packed levels.

Now, Mr. President, we anticipated that starting this weekend, Saturday till Sunday, our normal Luzon-based production was at 35,000 a day.

PRESIDENT MARCOS:  Okay.

SEC. GATCHALIAN: Next week, we’ll hit 85,000. It won’t drop at 50,000 kasi we’re expecting Pepito to be really bad. So, that’s why, sinabay-sabay namin lahat for next week.

So, our Luzon-based production or stockpile will be at any given time 50,000 a day, sometimes pa 85,000.

Now from November 13 to December 7, we would have produced close to one million family food packs, on top of the 1.3.

So, iyong lagi hong itinatanong kung kaya pa ho natin, kaya ho natin because we just got our QRF and we can produce another one million on top of the 1.3 million that’s spread nationwide. So, we’re okay, Mr. President, in terms of family food packs.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: All right, okay. All right. So, we have a little time, very little time to ramp up all of these preparations. So, let’s take full advantage of that.

So, we are okay in terms – we are all right in terms of the food packs and in terms of the other, iyong mga WASH, iyong mga non-food. All right.

And, well, all right… Again to give us a better idea, PAGASA can you tell us anong winds niya and how much water do you expect us to get in the different regions?

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR SERVANDO: The wind strength as of 2 p.m. this afternoon, Mr. President, is 150 kilometers per hour near the center and then with the gustiness o bugso na aabot ng 185 kilometers per hour. Because we expect this to strengthen as the Pepito move closer to Eastern Visayas and Bicol region, sir.

Rainfall, of course, kanina po up to 200, greater than 200 millimeters of rain particularly in Catanduanes. For two days, ito po iyong maka-receive talaga ng malakas na mga pag-ulan. And then on Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, and then Quezon.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Is there a way to forecast how many inches, how many millimeters of rain are expected?

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR SERVANDO: Yes, there is a corresponding millimeters of rain and, of course, the expected impacts on the ground –on the rainfall.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: So iyong intensity is more than 200 millimeters?

SEC. SOLIDUMSo, times two po kapag dalawang araw na ganyan?

PRESIDENT MARCOS: 200 a day.

One is that, first of all, the land is saturated. So wala nang ma-absorb ang lupa. Kaya ang daming gumuguho eh.

And then, there’s also the damage already that has been done to our flood control infrastructure. So, we have – we really have to do a little extra here. Because if – parang ano na tayo, iyon na nga, we are already in bad shape because of the saturation, because of the – the damages that has been done not only to our infrastructure but to private homes, to other structures.

So, some of those will not be available to us any longer and so that’s why we have to adjust accordingly.

The one thing that I think we should also – we should not ignore is the storm surge because we haven’t had to deal with this until Pepito.

The last time we had big storm surges were the super typhoons that we went through. And when there is a storm surge, it of course is very destructive in terms of infrastructure, both public and private.

But also the casualty rate ‘pag storm surge, kung hindi nakahanda ang tao, andami talagang natatangay. I remember very well in Yolanda, there were many, many people that we never accounted for anymore, especially in the peninsula, ‘yung tawag nila Barangay 88 ng Tacloban, lahat doon the peninsula was overrun. Many of those people we never saw them anymore, because we didn’t know that there was going to be a storm surge.

So, now that is why I’m asking that we identify the areas where – where does the figure three meters storm surge come from? How did you calculate that? Sa modeling ninyo three meters? All right.

So, I think we really have to do that so that… Because ang… The only way to battle a storm surge is to go up. Pagka medyo matibay-tibay iyong building, puwede kang umakyat, and they just let the storm surge come in. Pero kung wala, kung walang ganun na shelter, kailangan umalis sila doon sa area na iyon. Kundi itatangay talaga sila ‘yung pagbalik ng tubig, dadalhin sila sa labas, dadalhin sila sa dagat.

So, that’s something that we have to pay attention to. So, can we generate that map as soon as possible so that we can allow the DILG to warn those areas that there is a storm surge.

Now, what is the warning ‘pag storm surge? Anong sinasabi natin sa tao na ano itong bantayan ninyo? Ito iyong gawin ninyo. Kailangan talaga evacuate eh.  Talagang pinakamaganda evacuate.

SEC. TEODORO: Yes sir, that’ the only solution to this.

SEC. SOLIDUM: Mr. President, in the past administrations, we have preemptive evacuation.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: You have to do it. Yes.

SEC. SOLIDUM: So, those communities that have been warned for a storm surge before should know where they are supposed to go. Because in the map, marami naman po diyan very steep slope and elevated. So, they just need to identify the flat and the bay-like shapes so communities can be guided.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Well, many of that population is already in the evacuation centers because of the past storms. So, that’s something. But I’m sure there are new areas here. Because, oh dito I’m looking… Dito nga sa kabila eh, pulang-pula oh.

OFFICIAL: Hindi pa tinamaan ng huling bagyo.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Hindi pa.

DILG SECRETARY JONVIC REMULLA:  Sir, if I may, sir?

Ang OCD, sir, ang pinakamagaling mag-communicate sa mga barangays. When we had our simulation meeting, sitrep meeting last Friday and Saturday – Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, OCD was the one communicating directly to the barangay captain level and informing them what action to take and it is very effective, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: But when we inform them, you say it looks like a storm will pass in your area, here’s what you do.

You have to give them guidance, ito ang gagawin ninyo. We only have – if we’re going to send the warnings out today, this evening, then we’ll say you have very little time. We have to prepare. You have to get the peo — the evacuation has to be done talaga.

SEC. REMULLA: That’s what we did with Nika, sir and it is very effective.

SEC. SOLIDUM: Mr. President, the list of towns to be affected by the LGUs are also included in the…

PRESIDENT MARCOS: You have it already?

SEC. SOLIDUM: In the PAGASA warning.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: That’s for the surge – for the storm surge? Okay again, what do we tell people? When – kasi because – ‘yung storm surge people think it’s like iyong sa sine, iyong big wave na ganoon. It’s not.

It’s just water that doesn’t stop coming in. Basta’t tuloy-tuloy ang pasok, paakyat nang paakyat ang tubig. Paglabas niyan, ang bigat ng tubig niyan. Lahat tangayin ‘yan sa dagat. Eh ang bigat-bigat ng tubig.

So, what is our instruction to those areas that are endangered to be overwhelmed by storm surge?

SEC. TEODORO: Sir, we cascade the warnings and the instructions through the IACC, both the DILG, DENR, DOST-PAGASA, and us are there.

We cascade the warnings down to the regional directors and we give through the DILG the order to preemptively evacuate already.

So, that’s the trigger, once there’s a storm surge, DILG warns preemptive evacuation already, sir.

SEC. REMULLA: From our previous experience in Marce and in Nika, the Northern Luzon Provinces were very diligent in the evacuation exercises.

Today, we’re gonna have to test Region V again because during typhoon Kristine, there were not as efficient in conducting…

Hopefully they learned their lessons. But OCD is very deliberate and very precise with their warnings and they go to the barangay levels and tell them to move to higher ground and to go straight to evacuation areas.

Sir, OCD is on call 24/7 in case we need to send out warnings. One hour lead time and everyone assembles in the office and we have a conference room downstairs so we communicate directly via video.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: You forecast it to be over the Philippines for how long? You’ll be out by Monday evening?

If it continues to travel at what? 30 kilometers per hour?

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR SERVANDO: Yes.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: By Monday, it will be over water? Wala na sa lupa?

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR SERVANDO: It will exit the land mass through Pangasinan.

SEC. SOLIDUM: PAR by Monday.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: It will be?

SEC. SOLIDUM: Out of PAR by Monday.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: By Monday.

All right. So, that means if it’s going to rain heavily, it will start on Saturday, and Sunday, and Monday, that’s still 600 millimeters of rain.

I mean, to be very simple about it, three times two is 600. So, ‘yun ang magiging — that — medyo worst-case scenario is that we will be getting about 500 to 600 millimeters of rain in three days.

So, 200 millimeters per day. Can we — I think 200 millimeters per day is more or less something that we can — that we’ve seen before.

SEC. REMULLA: Sir, I think metro… Sir, NCR, I think is in greatest danger here.

PRESIDENT MARCOS:  Yes.

SEC. REMULLA: Because Ondoy was 450 millimeters over 24 hours.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: But that was over 24 hours.

SEC. REMULLA: Over 24 hours.

But, sir, if this persists on Saturday track, that it passes through as we see now on the — NCR is very vulnerable to flooding again. Because of the natural tendency for it, if it receives more than 200 ml, it floods already all over Metro Manila.

So, that has to be preemptively warned to our NCR mayors, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Will be the same problems that we always see in NCR but at least now we have a better idea where… Because as we’ve begun to see, nag – ‘yung dinadaanan ng tubig nagbabago eh. Pero ‘yung bagong pinagdadaanan – na dinadaanan ng tubig, alam na natin, medyo alam na natin ngayon.

So, let’s look back on the experience that we’ve had in the past few typhoons that caused extreme flooding that were – that dropped 700 millimeters in just past 24 hours. It’s just a little more than 24 hours.

SEC. SOLIDUM:  For Metro Manila, the color is orange. So, up to around 100 millimeters.

But to give our public an idea of when a landslide or flood would occur, the threshold for the assessment is around 100.

So, if it’s more than 100, floods and landslides can already happen.

So, when we explain about why we look at the 100, 200, 200 and above, it’s the 100 threshold that we are looking at.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: That’s for landslides but we also have to…

SEC. SOLIDUM: And also, flood.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Yeah, ‘yung flooding kasi it’s the amount – the volume of water that we can actually – that we can move out.

SEC. SOLIDUM: But with the saturation, it can be lower than 100.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Iyon na nga eh, that’s the added factor there that we didn’t really have to worry about before.

All right, I think we have everything that we cannot do… We have everything that we need to have in place. We have very little time left to prepare but it’s a good thing, actually. Kahit papaano nasa labas na ‘yung mga gamit natin, hindi na natin dadalhin.

But, we just — now, the prepositioning is going to be critical. Not only of the food packs but, of course, all the search and rescue assets that we are going to be needing.

Ayan, we’ll go back to the rubber boats, we’ll be going back to… What is our airlift capability in these terms now? How many aircraft do we have available to us so that as soon as the storm passes, kung makapasok, pasok na tayo.

AFP CHIEF OF STAFF GENERAL ROMEO BRAWNER JR.: Mr. President, we have three C130s available; one C295; one NC212i; seven Black Hawks; two Huey IIs; one Super Huey; and three Sokol helicopters, these are in Luzon.

In the Visayas and Mindanao, we have six Black Hawk helicopters, two each in Visayas Command, West Mindanao Command, and East Mindanao Command.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Saan naka – the ones in Visayas and Mindanao, where are those assets now?

GEN. BRAWNER: They are in Cebu and…

PRESIDENT MARCOS: They’re all in Cebu?

GEN. BRAWNER: Yes, Mr. President.

PRESIDENT MARCOS:  Yes.

GEN. BRAWNER: We also have seacraft available, Mr. President. We have five Navy ships available and about 129 rubber boats available nationwide, Mr. President.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Okay. We will – again, in terms of food and water supply, those are the things that we have to immediately we were concerned about. The pre-evacuation, gagawin nating tama ‘yun.

The new feature here that we have to deal with is the storm surge because that’s as fatal as a regular – just a typhoon.

We should – let us not forget the lessons that – na ano ng storm surge. Because again, to go back to Yolanda, the problem is we were telling everybody magkaka-storm surge, nobody knew what a storm surge was.

We should have just said tsunami. The people would have left the coast.

But a storm surge, nobody knew until makita mo, papasok na. And the water just kept going higher, and higher, and higher.

So, that’s why we have to give very specific guidance to the LGUs as to how to deal with the storm surge.

Again, I think one – not I think, I know that the critical element when it comes to storm surge is not the distance from the high water – from the high-tide mark, but it is the elevation above the high-water mark. That is the key element.

If it’s a three-meter storm surge, we have to get people at least five meters above that level.

SEC. SOLIDUM: Mr. President, when I used to warn for tsunami, we have to worry about not only the event but the accompanying hazard.

So, if you talk about a tropical cyclone, if you talk about a storm surge, and then we select an evacuation area, it’s an elevated area, they have must have a roof kasi umuulan, plus, they should worry about the possibility of landslide affecting the selected evacuation area.

So, they should have to be very selective. Kasi sabay-sabay pong posibleng mangyari ‘yan.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Actually, we might discover that some of the evacuation centers that we have are within those – ‘yun ang delikado.

We lose people from that, ‘yung nasisira ‘yung evacuation center, magkaka-casualty tayo doon sa evacuation center mismo.

So, mabigat talaga itong.

What is the long-term forecast? Mayroon pa bang parating?

SEC. SOLIDUM: May [unclear] po tayo…

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Of how long?Is there anything developing in the Indo-Pacific?

SEC. SOLIDUM: Wala pa, sir. Two weeks wala pang nakikita.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Okay. Well, that’s – I, again, I think that we have done, as usual, we properly followed the procedures that we have laid – we have set out for ourselves for disaster response.

And with the added feature that the storm surge, we must remember all the lessons that we learned from previous incidents of the storm surge. And we have to provide guidance to our local executives so that they know what to do and how to protect themselves against a possible storm surge.

Well, I don’t need – there is a list here, LGUs to preposition equipment, we do that anyway all the time, without… Basta’t may storm, nilalabas na namin ‘yung mga backhoe, ‘yung mga ano, pati ‘yung mga chainsaw, nilalabas na namin ‘yan hanggang – para makalapit agad. So, that’s – the LGUs know how to do that. The Public Works and the DOTr will also be doing the same things.

Sa kuryente, wala tayong magagawa. We batten down the hatches and puputulan talaga natin dahil ayaw nating magka-disgrasya. So…

DOE SECRETARY RAPHAEL LOTILLA: Mr. President, on the fuel, which we experienced in Kristine, I think we would need the same approach.

Unfortunately, vehicles clogged the highways because they were involuntarily stranded. So, we could not —  they could not be moved easily and I think this is where the composite team was able to clear the highways for the fuel convoys because the ports might not be  clear yet to replenish some of them right after. So, we will – we will play that by ear.

In the case of Central Luzon, Mr. President, the last super typhoon that went through Central Luzon was Karding in September 2022. And you will recall that you noted that there were 69 KV lines in Central Luzon, and you were wondering in fact, why  we still have 69 KV transmission lines. And we still have around 38 of them, directly in Central Luzon. And the 69 KV lines of the NGCP can withstand only 120 to 160 km per hour winds. So, if the winds are much higher than that and with gas, we really would expect to have power interruption from the transmission site.

The distribution lines — some of them are sturdier because they were more recently replaced but we’re particularly attending to the transmission lines because of this vulnerability. Thank you.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Well, the critical area – the critical facilities of course, are government services, the hospitals, the offices, so that the LGUs can somehow – can at least operate to an extent.

The other thing the storm surge – the other thing na dapat ilayo, vehicles. Oo. Because when I first arrived in Leyte, there were three vehicles running. Everything was washed out, was destroyed. So, the vehicles that we’re going to use, make sure that they are away from that kasi kukunin ng dagat ‘yan pagka hindi natin ilayo.

SEC. TEODORO: And sir, with the IACC – in connection with the traffic – with the IACC here, we also have the Coast Guard and the PPA where – if we foresee that there will be traffic caused by RoRos, we already recommend a no sail.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Okay, all right. Then communications, how do we immediately provide communications because that’s another thing that will be, that will come down.

We always expected the cell site to immediately come back up. Pero itong recently talagang nasira din eh. Hindi — wala, walang cell site at all.

So, we have to be able – because we have to be able to communicate with our people, with the local officials. What options do we have to help in that regard ‘no? Padala tayo… What we used to send, we used to send those big trucks na satellite but now, maliliit na ‘yung satellite. Siguro we should…

SEC. TEODORO: Insofar as the OCD is concerned sir, we are equipped with satellite communications and other HF radios throughout.

And part of the DICT cell in the IACC also provides emergency communications equipment pre and post disaster, sir.  So far, in these two disasters, we had no problems with communication lost insofar as monitoring is concerned, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: I remember before that everyone have – most LGUs have a satellite phone?

SEC. REMULLA: That was a long time ago, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Now, it no longer?

SEC. REMULLA: No longer, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Maybe that’s something we need to think about so that we provide the mayors – may satellite phone sila.

SEC. TEODORO: It’s probably cheaper with the Starlink.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: With? With the Starlink. Maybe that is a better —

SEC TEODORO: May satellite phones sila.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Yeah, ang problema sa Starlink, kakaunti lang ang puwedeng gumamit. So, each unit —

SEC. REMULLA: Starlink, sir, can — I think the big one can – 200 units at once.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: ‘Yung malaki. Oo.

SEC. REMULLA: ‘Yung malaki 200 at once. I think, sir, that should be mandatory already in all the provinces, sir.

SEC. TEODORO: At saka, sir, the [unclear] reliable is an [unclear].

SEC. REMULLA: Yes, iyan ang —

SEC. TEODORO: [unclear] reliable.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: All right, so let’s — tingnan natin nang mabuti ‘yun so that we can… The quickly, the more quickly and the better that we are able to communicate, the better we will be able to deploy our resources in the right place at the right time, in the right amount.

SEC. REMULLA: Sir, maybe Monday na lang sa level namin ni Secretary Gilbert ang response.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: ‘Yung?

SEC. REMULLA: Sa Monday. Kami na lang ang magmi-meeting. Kasi Monday ang assessment and release namin ‘di ba ng…

PRESIDENT MARCOS: We will be – I guess will be…

SEC. TEODORO: Tutal ‘yung selda, sir, ‘yung IACC dito magandang… Kaya kinakailangan importanteng desisyon kung saan kami mag-aano. Pero inaaraw-araw ko din just to – panlaban ng fatigue nila.

SEC. REMULLA: That’s right. That’s right.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Oo, ‘yung mga tao natin, walang tigil na silang nagta-trabaho.

SEC. REMULLA: Monday, sir, ang response.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Ang?

SEC. REMULLA: Monday ang response scenario dapat. Once they exit, that’s when we [unclear].

We can give you the accurate assessment.

SEC. TEODORO: Yeah, bukas and Sunday, sir, we will be constantly monitoring and adjusting and then bang after.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Oo nga, we always talk about the victims pero ‘yung mga personnel natin… Ngayon lang kasi na sunod-sunod eh.

SEC. REMULLA: That’s right, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Yeah, this – for sure at saka they’re – walang oras ‘yan. They’re working in the rain, they’re working in the sun, they’re working 24 hours a day.

So, let’s make sure that the – our personnel are in reasonably good shape para naman hindi sila masyadong mahirapan because if they start becoming sick or becoming…

SEC. TEODORO: May casualty na nga ako, sir. Lumubog sa helicopter, kasama ko pilay.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Nabalian?

SEC. TEODORO: Pilay.

SEC. SOLIDUM: Mr. President, can we request also the local chief executives to monitor the monitoring agency.

When it comes to storm surge modelling, this is forecast model. So as the typhoon gets closer and sometimes it would increase in strength, we can change the color. It can be higher than three at some point.

So, once we release a new bulletin or information, even those closer to the eastern side of Central Luzon, baka magka — may threat din ng storm surge ‘yan. So, imo-model din po ‘yun ‘pag lumalapit ‘yung bagyo.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: That will be dependent on how much stronger it is – it gets.

SEC. SOLIDUM:  Yes, sir. Yes po.

So, ibig ko sabihin, what we presented today, just for this time but it can change.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: So, the assumption is that at this strength.

SEC. SOLIDUM: At this strength, yes.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: I think it’s safe to assume or it would be prudent to assume that it will strengthen.

SEC. SOLIDUM:  Yes, sir. So, we request the DILG to remind the chief executives and disaster managers to monitor continuously.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Maybe, if it is very – it is inevitable, at least scientifically speaking, if it is inevitable that it will strengthen, the warnings we should be giving out are already worst-case. Kasi doon din pupunta eh. So, let’s, let’s do that.

OFFICIAL: Yes, sir. And…

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Gawin niyo ‘yung worst-case scenario na ‘pag nandiyan na, nag-strengthen ‘yung Pepito, ano ngayon ang magiging sitwasyon? Ano na ang kulay doon sa kanilang lugar? Oo, para maka…

SEC. TEODORO: Sir, we’re in constant touch with Nat here and his people. It is constant 24/7 and we immediately download and cascade through the DILG cell the latest information. And as a matter of fact, I have to thank Nat Servando because we are pressing him to make some predictions and assumptions or guesses basically which we need for planning.

And they have been very, very cooperative and effective doing that, sir. So, we thank the PAGASA, and for the constant interaction now, sir.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Yeah, but it’s all very well to continue monitoring and to have very accurate meteorology. But if we know that we are going to that – the typhoon, that Pepito will get to that strength at some point, that’s what we have to prepare for.

We don’t have to prepare for what’s happening today Friday, what’s happening today Saturday, palakas nang palakas, palakas nang palakas. Let’s go straight to that worst-case scenario.

SEC. TEODORO: Because, sir also, if we go to evacuation centers, it also makes the delivery of essential goods and services more efficient, quicker and health-safer for everyone. We can even give cooked food already, sir, rather than the food packs.

PCO ACTING SECRETARY CESAR CHAVEZ: Mr. President, which leads me to another point. Can you go back to the rainfall slide? The one with red.

All right. Dr. Servando, you said “Walang humpay na ulan.” What is the indicative data so far? Is this going to be 24 hours in one day or minimum 15 hours a day. Or is it 10 hours a day. Walang humpay na ulan?

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR SERVANDO: This is a –  the validity of this slide is 24 hours.

SEC. CHAVEZ: So, walang humpay na ulan 24 hours a day from Saturday noon to Sunday afternoon.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: More or less, more or less.

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR SERVANDO: Because of the torrential…

SEC. REMULLA: Sir, do we have an estimate on how long will it spend in each province? The rainfall?

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR SERVANDO: 24 hours.

SEC. REMULLA: But 24 hours is our forecast from entry to exit ‘di ba? But how long do we estimate Pepito to be in the Philippines, from landfall to exit?

PAGASA ADMINISTRATOR SERVANDO: From tomorrow noontime up to Sunday noontime.

SEC. REMULLA: So, it’s Saturday noontime until Sunday noontime. So therefore, the center of the storm is moving.

SEC. SOLIDUM: We have a daily forecast. So, by Sunday noon to Monday noon, mayroon. Can you show —

SEC. REMULLA: Do you have an hourly forecast? I mean a province-wide forecast on how long it will rain in the area? It cannot be 24 hours because the storm is moving.

SEC. SOLIDUM: So, this is Sunday, for tomorrow. The next slide, that’s the next day.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: When we warn the LGUs, do we provide them with maps? These kinds of maps?

SEC. CHAVEZ: Mr. President, these are accessible on social media, in social pages, that’s why ‘yung local government units in our monitoring ho – local government units keep on sharing, posting the PAGASA reports po on a regular basis.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: All right. But again, siguro because people cannot be just monitoring na nakabantay, titingnan nila, oh ito ‘yung sitwasyon natin.

So let’s again give them the worst-case scenario already. As best as we can forecast the worst-case scenario, bad as it might be, we have done all the preparations for that.

The blessing for us is hindi magamit lahat ‘yun. So, that’s no loss to us. That is a big advantage to us.

So let’s… But you know huwag naman nating takutin iyong mga local sasabihin natin na talagang masyadong malakas… Malakas pero ito iyong maaari niyong gawin, ito iyong mga nag-aantay na tutulong sa inyo. Ang gawin niyo lang mag-evacuate kayo nang mabuti. Kayo sa mga surge – may suspected areas for storm surge, umakyat na kayo sa mataas-taas na lugar.

Well, okay, we’ll just have to do what we can. Hindi, what’s very, very critical and DILG is going to need that information, is information.

That they know what’s going to happen. People know, the executives, the officials, down to the village level, the barangay level, alam nila ‘yung mangyayari, what to anticipate so they can do… Then, we also provide guidance, let’s say “ito ‘yung gawin ninyo as much as possible.” So, that’s what we should do.

So by… Can we get that done today? Well, sa LGUs. As long as you get all of the – get all the information out. Ipadala mo na sa kanila. Send it to the phones of the mayors, send it to the phones of the governors para mayroon na silang kopya. Hindi na sila kailangan maghanap. Tayo ang magpadala ng mga information na ganito. Ipadala natin sa mga telepono ng mayor at saka governor, tapos puwede na nilang iprint-out iyon at gamitin na nila. Oo. Let’s get as much information to everybody as quickly as possible.

When can we complete that package? The warning package, the package that we will send via email, via Facebook, whatever. All, in fact not whatever, all of them gagawin natin.

SEC. REMULLA: This afternoon, sir, we’re ready.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: You have it ready?

SEC. TEODORO: We are continuously warning and updating, sir. It’s a constant thing.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: Okay, all right.

So, provide the DILG with all that information so that they can disseminate it as…

DIR. PALACIO:  And together with the local government units and the Office of Civil Defense, the likely scenario that we have developed at the Manila level, they have developed it into, translated it into worst-case scenario, sir.

So, that – including all of the hazards that has been mentioned over here. So ang worst-case scenario is the one that you’ve seen, the one that was sent to you by the Secretary of National Defense for CAR. And all of the regions have their worst-case scenario already developed.

PRESIDENT MARCOS: All right. Okay, well, again, let’s just keep doing that. Watch out for the storm surge. Continue what we’re doing for the relief goods.

Our assets for rescue, search and rescue will be in place. The local governments alam naman nila, sanay naman sila, alam nila ang gagawin nila.  Basta sabihin mo may parating, alam na nila ang gagawin nila.

Okay, I think we’ve attended to most of the basics. Is there anything else that we need to be worried about? All right, thank you very much.

 

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